| Greetings from London, where summer is fast approaching,
I’ve been thinking about Vladimir Putin and his various would-be justifications for invading Ukraine. He appears to think Russia has a veto, enforceable through violence, over the decisions that neighbouring, sovereign, countries take, for example on joining NATO. So much for that. Today Ukraine may not be poised to join the alliance formally, but it is held much more firmly in a Western embrace than before the war. Just look at all that economic and military support flowing its way. (And emotional support too: last night its Eurovision Song Contest entrants, profiled recently by our colleagues at 1843 magazine, were swept to victory by popular acclaim.) Meanwhile, other countries that had felt comfortable as non-aligned or neutral, are now scrambling to join the alliance. That is entirely because of Mr Putin’s aggression.
Finland’s leaders made clear last week that their country will seek to join NATO. Today, as expected, the ruling party in Sweden said it would follow suit. This is a dramatic change. I have relatives in central Sweden, and know how much they treasure their country’s cautious, independent-minded approach to world affairs. But in the past few months, Russia has made Europe a much more dangerous place. No wonder Sweden and Finland both seek strong partners. Soon the shared border between Russia and NATO members will double in length. This is not the outcome Mr Putin can have sought.
Is the period ahead, before formal accession, likely to be dangerous for the applicants? Expect more grumbles from the Kremlin, threats of cyber-attacks, border incursions, cooling economic ties and frostier diplomacy. But it seems unlikely to me that Russia, as it struggles on the ground in Ukraine, would wish to try anything more than that. Still, it is up to existing members of the alliance, most notably America, but also Turkey, to signal the speedy entry of the new members.
Persistently high inflation across many economies continues to spread gloom. Slowing growth, even recession, may be on the cards all over. My colleagues who cover business and economics have plenty to keep them busy. Not least, the markets are reflecting that anxiety. Last month and this one have been downbeat for investors. Among the most dramatic downturns has been in the world of crypto-currencies. Readers in recent days have devoured this story on the vicious sell-off in risky assets, including bitcoin. Investors in crypto are used to great swings of fortunes, so perhaps won’t worry too much. But so much for the idea of stablecoins.
I used to live and work in India, and absolutely loved being there. But it can be an infuriating country, too. For all the reasons to cheer the great opportunities there—its people’s immense ingenuity and talents, their chances to gain from new technology and improved government— there were always other difficulties that looked sure to hold India back. Soaring heat and disappearing rivers are a reminder of how climate change threatens, for example. A growing authoritarianism, and blundering policies, are other big concerns. We considered this in our cover story last week.
At the start of this week, I’ll be keeping an eye on a conference in Paris on transatlantic technology co-operation— already important because of the rise of China, but given extra urgency by the war in Ukraine. Later in the week I’ll be watching Australia’s federal election. And then there’s Joe Biden’s looming trip to South Korea and Japan, two crucial partners in Asia. North Korea is a persistent threat in East Asia, but watch for one particularly grim story there. After long isolation, and a failure to vaccinate North Koreans, an outbreak of covid-19 could be devastating.
Once again, thanks for all of your thoughtful messages. Joanne Sprott writes in response to the leaked news that America’s Supreme Court will probably strike down the federal right to abortion. As she rightly says, it would be far better if laws were made by Congress, not judicial rulings. “It is a result of our legislature’s abrogation of responsibility for passing actual laws, which would stand the test of time better.” Mohammed Dore writes from Canada to chide me for saying that the West is right to support Ukraine, warning that Russia will broaden the war: “This will inevitably lead to Russian attacks on neighbouring NATO countries, and possibly the start of WW3.” I politely disagree, Professor Dore. Showing weakness to an aggressor, such as Mr Putin, is the best way to invite more attacks. Last, Jim Shortreed , also from Canada, calls for more attention to be paid to the urgent need for nuclear disarmament, and urges the UN to take up this cause. I cheer you on, Mr Shortreed.
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