| Hello from bunting-clad London,
Britain is shaking off the effects of four days of flag-waving and street parties to mark 70 years of the queen’s reign. But it is Boris Johnson who may endure the worst hangover. Many Conservative MPs have spent the past few days listening to constituents’ anger over his lies and incomplete apologies for Downing Street parties during covid-19 lockdowns. Two by-elections loom in June, where Conservatives risk defeat that would bode ill for a future general election. Reportedly dozens of MPs are now calling for a leadership contest within the ruling party, so the odds of a vote coming soon are shortening. We think Mr Johnson would probably win, but his hold on power is looking less secure.
These are difficult times for elected politicians everywhere, as economic circumstances turn grimmer. It is ever more likely that America’s economy will fall into recession. My colleagues have spelled out why its downturn will probably be mild (it helps that unemployment is low and that many households have savings), but the recovery could be slow and painful. Next we are looking at the risk of recession in Europe. High energy prices, lingering supply-chain problems and other difficulties make it particularly tricky to forecast what lies ahead.
In France, worries about the cost of living could make it hard for Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party to keep its majority in parliament, after the elections at the weekend. Without legislative clout, even a French president—with all his centralised power—can’t expect to get big reforms passed.
Such stories will keep us busy, but I expect it will still be the fighting in Ukraine that is our main focus. The war there may continue for many months, but we already know that there will be long-term consequences. One serious concern is about countries using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons. We wrote in our latest cover story about Vladimir Putin’s hints that he might be willing to launch a nuclear strike. The taboo against using nuclear weapons may be breaking down. As more countries get hold of such weapons, and as some existing nuclear powers (such as China) enlarge their arsenals, this is a deeply troubling prospect.
In the short term, Russia’s armed forces have made more gains in the east of Ukraine. The invaders had claimed last week to have taken the city of Severodonetsk, or rather the rubble that remains there. If that happens, the path could open for attacks on nearby cities. Yet in the past couple of days, Ukrainians say their own counter-attacks have been partially successful in the city. We look today at the role played by Ukrainian partisan fighters behind the Russian lines. For the occupiers, taking territory in Ukraine comes at a heavy cost.
My inbox was full to bursting this week with your messages. Many thanks for all of them. Overwhelmingly, readers agreed that the “justice” camp (which calls for Mr Putin to pay a high price for invading Ukraine, and not to be rewarded) has the stronger arguments about how the war should end. Javier Rupérez, a former ambassador from Spain to NATO and America, writes that Mr Putin “has violated all the basic rules of International Law” and must not gain as a result. Terry Wieland, a long-term reader from Fenton, Missouri, points out, rightly, that Russia faced no serious security concerns on its western border before the war. A smaller number of readers did speak up for the “peace” camp, arguing that it is better to find almost any way to bring the war to an end, even if that means rewarding aggression.
Claudia Méndez Arriaza asked for the names of the books I am reading about Vladimir Putin. I’d strongly recommend one by Fiona Hill, along with several others mentioned in this review of books about Mr Putin. Many thanks, too, for all of your ideas for By Invitation columns. Please send more and I’ll respond to those next week. We asked the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to write us an article last week explaining why he is blocking the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. You can read his piece here. I’d like to know what you make of it.
Meanwhile, please do send me your thoughts at economisttoday@economist.com. And follow me on Twitter at @ARobertsjourno. | 
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