Fortune Editors ‘Our worst holiday season in years’

China trade talks officially begin. Representatives from Beijing and Washington will negotiate in Switzerland between May 9 and May 12.

Exports to China fall. U.S. exports to China in April and May were down 40% year-over-year as the trade war between the countries continues, according to supply chain management startup Altana. At the port of Portland in Oregon, which handles fewer shipping containers than most U.S. ports, exports are down 50% from where they were before tariffs were announced.

Biden accuses Trump of “appeasement”: The former president offered a scathing appraisal of Trump’s handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in an interview with the BBC. Watch the whole thing here.

U.S. will increase surveillance of Greenland. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi ordered intelligence chiefs “to learn more about Greenland’s independence movement and attitudes on American resource extraction on the island,” according to the WSJ.

Democrats want to ban the president from owning or creating crypto. The proposed bill comes after Abu Dhabi announced it would make a $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance using USD1, the stablecoin minted by President Trump’s World Liberty Financial crypto venture. Separately, Trump’s memecoin earned the president $230 million in trading fees. Reality check: Republicans control Congress, not Democrats, so it’s not clear how far the bill is likely to go. But some Dems have withdrawn their support for bipartisan stablecoin legislation.

India launched air strikes on Pakistan. Twenty-six people were killed, and five jets and a drone were shot down, according to Pakistan. The attack was a retaliation for a previous attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir. Context: Both countries have nuclear weapons. 

What will Abel do differently? Berkshire Hathaway has enjoyed a wildly successful six decades under Warren Buffett, but how much will incoming CEO Greg Abel adopt Buffett’s style? Veteran Fortune reporter Shawn Tully evaluates Abel’s differing strengths. 

Palantir earnings stun. Defense contractor Palantir announced a 71% year-over-year increase in U.S. commercial revenue in Q1. During the earnings call, CEO Alex Karl credited a “warrior culture” and the Trump Administration’s policies for the company’s success.

Papal conclave starts today. Cardinals will meet behind closed doors in Vatican City and continue meeting until a new pope is chosen. Remember, the Vatican will signal the status of its decision via a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel. Black smoke means no decision. White smoke means a new pope has been elected. See the runners and riders here.

The markets

• Asian markets were broadly up this morning on news that trade talks between the U.S. and China will begin in a few days time. By contrast, U.S. stocks sank yesterday and European markets are down this morning. China’s SSE Composite was up 0.8%. The index is up 2.46% YTD. South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.55%. Japan’s Topix rose 0.3%. The S&P 500 sank 0.8% yesterday. It is down 4.7% YTD. S&P futures were up 0.62% this morning, premarket. Palantir stock lost 12% yesterday after it delivered a very strong earnings call. Investors appeared to have sold on the news after buying it before the call. The stock is up 44% YTD. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.25% in early trading.


From the analysts: 

• Ark Invest on SpaceX: “Analytically, the model works like a flywheel. Beginning with cash, SpaceX builds rockets and satellites, generates orbital bandwidth, acquires Starlink customers, and reinvests the resulting cash. As the cycle continues, funds flow gradually toward Mars development until the Starlink constellation is complete. At that point, we assume that SpaceX goes ‘all-in’ on Mars. Each Mars-bound rocket carries a mix of Optimus humanoid robots and materials. As Optimus costs decline and productivity improves over time, SpaceX builds its Mars ‘book value,’” per Daniel Maguire and Sam Korus.
• Oxford Economics on services: “The ISM nonmanufacturing index indicates the economy continued to expand at the start of Q2, albeit at a slow pace. We expect the services side of the economy to fare better than the manufacturing sector this year but will be unable to avoid the impact of higher prices and weaker consumer spending as real disposable incomes decline,” per Matthew Martin.
• Macquarie on China: “A US-China deal is far from view, but deals between the US and its other Asian partners are more palpable and even being speculated upon. That squares with our view that 'negotiations and concessions' with the US's allies (and not China) will be a key narrative over the 'next hundred days',” per Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry.
• Wedbush on the movie tax: “We think the large studios and distributors including Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount, Comcast/NBC Universal, Lionsgate, and Sony, and various independent studios carry a significant amount of risk as they will have to lobby the Trump administration to set a reasonable standard for films that require live sets in foreign settings while otherwise moving productions stateside for studio-based scenes,” per Alicia Reese et al.

A top CEO declared the U.S. oil industry has ‘peaked’ by Jordan Blum

RSM chief economist: ‘Recession will start on the docks of Los Angeles’ by Alena Botros

Israel-based crypto trading platform eToro plans U.S. IPO that would value it at $4 billion by Catherine McGrath

Jamie Dimon says AI will mean people live to 100: It’s possible, says genetic testing CEO, but relies on these three factors by Eleanor Pringle

eBay unveils AI agent aimed at helping shoppers unearth hidden ‘treasures’ by Massimo Marioni

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Jim Edwards.