Wanna know when silver will go on its next surge?Ā We can actually make an intelligent estimate, based on data and trends from history.
I havenāt seen anyone else document this, but I think itās valuable intel for us silver investorsā¦ |
Remember This Chart? |
It documents all the spikes in the silver price since the 1970s. Not bull markets per se, just spikes. It shows the percentage gain and how long each lasted. |
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Since 1970, there have been 12 major spikes in the silver price. Interestingly, they occurred during both bull markets (seven) and bear markets (five).Ā From this data we further learn thatā¦ |
ā¢ The average gain of all spikes is 150.4% (if you use median itās 89.7%) ā¢ The average duration of spikes is just 7.4 months. |
In other words, silverās spikes are both big and short-lived. Ā Thereās another implication here as well: you have to be prepared for the next spikeĀ beforeĀ it sets in. Given its sudden volatility, to wait until it starts is too late. Ā I know many of you have been doing that. And yes, the wait has been frustratingā¦ itās been a year now since the last one. Ā Which means thereās another thing I wanted to know, which you may be interested in knowing, tooā¦ |
How Long Between Spikes? |
I thought it might be valuable to calculate the time between the spikes, to see what we can learn.Ā I measured the time between all the spikes above, from the end of each to the beginning of the next. Hereās what it shows. |
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You can see there is wide variety in the time between spikes, ranging from one year and three months to a whopping 5 years and nine months. Ā Again though, this includes both bull and bear markets. And itās noteworthy that the two longest timesā1987 to 1993 and 1998 to 2003ātook place during clear bear markets. If we remove those two (assuming you believe weāre currently in a bull market), the average drops by an entire year, to 2 years and seven months. Ā Silverās last spike peaked on September 1 last yearā¦ we donāt know if it will take another year or more for the next one to kick ināor if like some of the shorter time periods is ready to burst out soonābut based on this 50-year history we do know the current lag is not abnormal. It fits within silverās pattern. |
ā¢ Silverās DNA is one of lackluster price movement, sometimes for years at a time, punctuated by sudden and violent spikes. Regardless of whether itās a bull or bear market. |
I understand if some of you have some doubts that there will be another big spike in the silver price. It may āfeelā like thatās the case, but hereās the thing: youād be arguing against history. And, by default, putting your faith in the current monetary system.Ā Those are dangerous assumptions in my opinion. Mike has to be only half right aboutĀ this episode of Hidden Secrets of MoneyĀ for the next spike to kick in and match or exceed that big one from the late ā70s.
Even without Mikeās exhaustive research, we know the silver price spikes every three years or so.
Hang in there, my friends. We canāt control when the next price explosion will ignite, but we can control how well prepared we are for its inevitability.
If youāre interested, I bought some more ofĀ these on Tuesday. |