| Hello from London,
What’s the point of Canada? Donald Trump would wipe it from the map, expanding the United States by swallowing it up. Yet in its politics, values and economic performance, Canada is more an outpost of Europe than a northern twin to Mr Trump’s country. A few months ago our Charlemagne columnist even suggested (he was joking, but there’s something to it) that Canada should join the European Union. It would fit the club perfectly. Perhaps Canadians should be pleased by the outside interest—the usual Canadian curse, after all, is to be ignored by the rest of the world.
On Monday voters are set to elect Mark Carney as prime minister. Until a few months ago, he was better known as a central banker. Our forecast model gives his Liberal party an 88% chance of taking most seats in the election. Those overwhelming odds reflect a massive political comeback. The party of Justin Trudeau, after three successive terms, had been overdue for a spell in opposition. But after Mr Trump’s crude talk of grabbing Canada by the 49th parallel, almost no self-respecting Canadian will holiday south of the border, buy imported American booze or vote for the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre. Mr Poilievre, it seems to me, is hardly an extremist. His own blunder was associating himself with the MAGA crowd. (Incidentally, the horrific attack this weekend in Vancouver won’t affect the election outcome.)
The point of Canada, under Mr Carney, will at least now be clear: it is to preserve what it is even as America, sadly, changes. It must thrive despite the nasty whiff of authoritarianism wafting over from next door—and so show that a liberal democratic North American country, where the rule-of-law is paramount, is the model for others to emulate. This is, in large part, an economic challenge; Canada must become far more productive, as one of our guest essay-writers, Michael Ignatieff, set out recently in his By Invitation column. That means more economic reforms must come. It will have to happen even as the economy remains entwined with its biggest trading partner, meaning Mr Carney will have to find ways to defy Mr Trump’s tariffs and other threats. I’d predict that Canada will succeed, eventually: the president has shown he is a weak negotiator who tends to crumble when faced with firm resistance. Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and others have worked that out. It’s time America’s allies did, too.
This week Mr Trump marks his 100th day in office. He has already proved he is a hugely consequential president, even if there is still no ceasefire deal in Ukraine. (Read our latest report from the ground in Ukraine). It may at last be dawning on Mr Trump that Mr Putin is “tapping him along” and can’t be trusted as a negotiating partner over the war. For his own sake—to avoid being remembered by history as Neville Trump—I hope he does grasp that appeasement of Mr Putin will only encourage a brutal opponent. The world is preparing to mark 80 years since democracy triumphed over authoritarians in Europe. It would be a good moment for Mr Trump to open a history book. I also recommend our 1945 archive project, tracking how The Economist covered the end of the second world war, week by week. In the latest entry, you’ll be pleased to hear, both Hitler and Mussolini have died. I encourage you to read the whole thing. Otherwise, for lighter fare, try your hand at our mini cryptic crossword or our Dateline history quiz. Find these at our games page.
Finally, I’d like to hear what you think is in store for the next 100 days. By the middle of summer would you expect Mr Trump’s approval rating to have fallen even further (it has slumped to minus 13 points, according to our tracker)? I would. And will his pace of activity slacken? Will resistance from the courts, Congress, the Democrats and others be growing more forceful? And will the stupidity of his global tariffs campaign become so obvious that they will have been quietly shelved? I’d love to hear your predictions for the state of play on day 200. Write to me at economisttoday@economist.com. |
