| I spent last week in America, partly in sweltering New York and partly at the Aspen Ideas Festival. It was hardly a hardship trip. New York, despite the heat, was buzzing. And I had a great time in the mountains, listening to thought-provoking conversations and meeting many Economist subscribers in an idyllic setting. In both places I was struck by how upbeat people were feeling. New York financiers and Aspen attendees are a fairly elite bunch, but the change in mood from my last trip in April was remarkable.
Gone was the fear that President Donald Trump would wreck America’s economy. Instead, with markets back at all-time highs, an insouciance has set in. The general conviction seems to be that tariffs are really just a negotiating tool and that those levies that have been put in place haven’t done much harm. And, yes, Mr Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill increases the debt, but no one seems too alarmed about it.
Call me a European grinch, but I felt I had arrived on planet Pangloss. Yes, America’s economy is remarkably resilient. Yes, it is innovative, entrepreneurial and a place where optimism almost always pays off. Nonetheless, I worry that Trumponomics 2.0 is eroding the foundations of America’s economy in more fundamental ways than many people are willing to admit.
Our cover in most of the world this week looks in detail at one signature element of Mr Trump’s economic policy: the One Big Beautiful Bill act. The bill is so bloated that important measures were poorly scrutinised, and includes a lot of pork to buy the support of congressmen. Its neglect of the economy’s long-term health is a symptom of a wider malaise, as our cover leader explains.
It is wrong to expect, as Republicans claim, that this bill will create an economic boom. Our briefing finds a law that is profligate and yet insubstantial. It extends lavish tax cuts well into the future and boosts spending on defence and immigration enforcement. It offsets some—but nowhere near enough—of the cost by ditching green subsidies and cutting health care and welfare for the poor. The backdrop to all of this is America’s mountain of debt. Unless the budget deficit falls, America’s debt-to-GDP ratio will in about two years exceed the 106% reached after the second world war. The long-term risks to the economy are real, and growing.
July 4th also marks the first birthday of Britain’s Labour government. It will be a miserable affair. Our cover in Britain presents the grim picture for Sir Keir Starmer. Labour is trailing in the polls; this week Sir Keir was humiliated by a successful rebellion of Labour MPs against a welfare bill. In Parliament the next day his chancellor wept and yields on Britain’s debt soared. The prime minister has never looked weaker. Our cover leader outlines four big errors he’s made. In theory, one year is too soon to write off Sir Keir. But a Labour Party that chooses popularity over hard reforms will end up with neither. | 
