In recent months I’ve had a number of conversations, both in public and private, with some of the leading lights in the AI revolution. These have left me dizzy at the scale of change that is imminent, and both excited and alarmed at the potential consequences. Many of the men leading the charge to create ever more powerful AIs (and, yes, by and large they are men) predict that in a handful of years—some reckon by 2027—they will have created “artificial general intelligence”, where AIs can outcompete the average human at all cognitive tasks. If that prediction is even close to being accurate, the consequences will be as great as anything in the history of the world economy. The cover package for our annual summer issue offers some mind-stretching analysis of this possible future. We have devoted two in-depth briefings to the topic. One considers the risks, including catastrophic scenarios in which AI-enabled terrorists build bioweapons or a misbehaving AI slips its leash and outwits humanity. I’m consistently struck by how privately nervous many of the AI pioneers are about the risks the world is running in the pell-mell rush to ever more powerful models, even as none of them feels that they can slow down. If, as many believe, the company, or country, that gets to superintelligence first will accrue an unassailable lead, then no one can afford to be too cautious. Everyone seems trapped in a race dynamic that prioritises speed over safety. Our second, more upbeat, briefing looks at the astonishing, and underappreciated, economic consequences of AGI. If, as Silicon Valley promises, its models push forward the pace of technological discovery, there is a possibility of explosive economic growth. The consequences for human living standards, labour markets and asset prices would be profound. Despite the risks, the rise of superintelligence should provoke wonder. This week you’ll also find a special supplement of narrative journalism from 1843, The Economist’s sister publication. These deeply reported articles cover topics such as illegal gold-mining and the world’s toughest exam. You’ll soon be able to read one 1843 piece a month in the print edition of The Economist. Next week we won’t publish a print edition but a full weekly issue will be available on our app and website on July 31st. The next print issue will be dated August 9th (and, as always, will appear online a couple of days earlier). If you subscribe to The Economist you can enjoy our updated and improved app. Our videos are now more prominent and it is easier to find what you want. And at weekends we will serve up longer and more contemplative coverage alongside the usual cut and thrust of analysis. |