| When I was in Israel two weeks ago, many of the foreign-policy experts I spoke to complained that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had left the country on the back foot geopolitically. They noted that President Donald Trump skipped Israel on his trip to the Middle East and worried that he would agree to a weak nuclear deal with Iran. With Mr Netanyahu locked in a forever war in Gaza, many argued, Israel was missing out on the reshaping of the region.
How wrong that was. Mr Netanyahu’s dramatic decision to attack Iran on June 13th has upended the Middle East and reaffirmed the Israeli prime minister as the region’s wiliest strategic player. Whether it was with incontrovertible intelligence or persuasive manipulation, he has convinced Mr Trump to do a near about-turn. America’s president has gone from wanting nothing to do with an Israeli strike to being one signature away from joining in.
As I write this newsletter, no order has been given. But the region—and the world—are on tenterhooks, waiting for what may well be the most momentous decision of Mr Trump’s presidency.
Our cover asks how the war will end. Will it make possible a positive realignment of the region focused on economic development? Will Israel achieve its ultimate aim of dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities? Or will the result be yet more war, miring the Middle East in years of chaos and violence?
We argue diplomacy is still the best path. We caution against further American involvement, but we note that Mr Trump faces a difficult trade-off. By doing more damage than Israel could alone, American bombs might increase the chances that the Iranian regime enters talks in earnest. But those gains are uncertain and must be weighed against the risk of a regional conflagration.
My expert colleagues have covered this conflict from every angle, and they will continue to do so. We have published a three-part briefing: part one outlines the dizzying range of scenarios for how this conflict could play out; part two looks at the implications for Iran’s nuclear programme; and part three explains the dynamics within Iran. We have also published exclusive details of the spy dossier that led Israel to war. And we have written about the Arab world’s reaction, as well as the potential impact on oil prices. We have also published several videos, including one asking whether Iran’s regime could really fall.
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