| Hello from London,
The retaliation is poised to begin. A week after the extraordinary drone raids by Ukraine against Russian strategic bombers, Russia’s army is set to launch its much-awaited summer offensive. As we report today, those on the front in the east of Ukraine see the “writing on the wall”. People within cities such as Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka and Sumy are braced for a ferocious assault. (Read our new story on the looming attack.)
Much will be conducted by soldiers on foot or motorcycle. The dispersed and exposed attackers are vulnerable. Very many will die, as they have in previous rounds. Russia’s grim strength, however, is that it recruits thousands of new men every month to feed into the grinder. That’s far more than Ukraine can manage. We estimate that Vladimir Putin has so far sacrificed some 1m of his fellow Russians—dead or wounded. That’s a terrible price for the gain of modest territory in the Donbas region. The Russian leader employs a strategy that would shame a general in the first world war. Mr Putin should have been sacked, prosecuted and jailed for bloody misrule and military incompetence a long time ago.
What might the new offensive achieve? Mr Putin may hope for a decisive breakthrough allowing his soldiers to enter flat territory behind Ukraine’s existing front, where they can move more quickly westwards. More likely: ongoing, bloody attrition. Lessons from the past few years suggest that defenders armed with drones and artillery have a huge advantage.
The new round of fighting might at least make it clear to Donald Trump that talk of ceasefires is fruitless. But I wouldn’t bet on the American president criticising Mr Putin, let alone threatening him. Mr Trump has repeatedly shied away from blaming the Russian for the war he launched. My best guess is that the American will increasingly look away. At a NATO summit later this month it will be European powers that vow to dramatically increase defence spending and support of Ukraine.
Mr Trump’s current concern is domestic. This weekend he deployed the National Guard in California, over the head of the (Democratic) governor, to quell protests over a crackdown on immigration. His base will cheer that. They were less happy to see the (utterly predictable) falling out between Mr Trump and Elon Musk of the past couple of weeks. I don’t take seriously Mr Musk’s talk of funding a third party, the American Party. Mr Musk is rich enough to have the means to defy the president. But Mr Trump, in turn, has ways to punish his former friend. Mr Musk should really read our historical guide on how courtiers should handle kings, such as Mr Trump.
Finally, I was really struck by how many of you sent messages in response to my focus on good news last week. I’m taking your warm words and enthusiasm to heart, and will repeat the effort more often. (Do note, too, that our most recent cover story is about a remarkably hopeful, pro-girl demographic development around the world.) For next week, I’d like your views on whether the bust-up between Mr Trump and Mr Musk really matters. Is this a meaningless melodrama or the start of Republican defiance of the president? Write to me at economisttoday@economist.com. |
