• In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady on Fortune’s CEO Survey.
• The big story: The recession keeps failing to show up.
• The markets: Low drama.
• Analyst notes from Deutsche Bank on China, EY on consumer sentiment, and Macquarie and Convera on the dollar.
• Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. We just released our 2025 Fortune CEO Survey, in collaboration with Deloitte, showing a dramatic drop in optimism compared with the survey we conducted in November. About 60% of CEOs were optimistic about their company’s performance when polled in April, vs. 84% in November. Pessimism about the global economy rose to 58% from 18% just after Trump’s victory. Deloitte U.S. CEO Jason Girzadas joined me for a virtual roundtable with other CEOs yesterday to discuss their strategies.
With uncertainty high, Girzadas noted, being agile and adaptable is a more important skill in leaders than the ability to predict what’s next. Among the top priorities cited by leaders in our survey: supply-chain mobilization, increased investment in AI and a continued focus on managing costs. “We’re seeing a simplification of the agenda on management teams with the focus on a few critical priorities,” he said. “You have to be responsive in the short term but given all these forces of change, the opportunity for rethinking business models writ large is there.”
Here are edited highlights from some of the CEOs who joined us:
Dave Bozeman, CH Robinson. “We have over 83,000 customers. Not all of them are able to move product forward. Some automotive systems were designed for years to be just-in-time. With the 90-day pause, we have seen an uptick right away in people starting to move product from China. There’s been a flurry of activity. You have to be calm, measured, and data-driven, driving a good lean operating model with technology.”
Scott Boatwright, Chipotle. “You’re balancing what’s right for the company, the consumer, as well as for earnings. We are all beholden in public companies to the investor and we have to manage the expectations of the constituents that have invested in this brand … The consumer is in a good place today, but fear is at an all-time high. We have 130,000 team members, 52% of whom are Hispanic. While we e-verify every team member, they have friends or family members who could be facing ramifications from what this administration hopes to accomplish, whether that’s job loss or potential deportation. It’s important as leaders and organizations to help support them.”
Christina Kosmowski, LogicMonitor. “Middle management are the ones carrying this every day. They’re the connective tissue to the frontline workforce, and they’re burnt out. I think a lot about how are we helping them and enabling them. AI is not being executed as fast as everyone thought it could and I think that’s because of this middle layer.”
Himanshu Palsule, Cornerstone. “This change to the future of work has been in the making for five to 10 years, and in some ways I’m glad it’s getting forced to a decision now. Everything around you is changing, and it’s going to change even faster: business models, pricing, supply chains, how things are procured, how things are sold. There is now a new virtual reality of AI.”
Padraig McDonnell, Agilent. “We’re doubling down on innovation because that’s going to fuel growth as customers need new technologies. We’re asymmetrically investing in some innovation projects right now so we can come out of this stronger.”
John Lee, MKS Instruments. “We’re kind of ground zero for the trade wars. The tariffs added a whole other level of uncertainty and running around. We have teams of people trying to figure out first, can we comply? And then how do we mitigate for the short term.”
Cid Wilson, Hispanic Association on Corporate Responsibility. “Attacks on DEI are pushing companies to do things that may not be consistent with their corporate values. And the employees are seeing this. When you come into the office, you’re bringing everything that we’re hearing with you. And this has an impact on productivity.”
There are areas of optimism in the survey, too, so check it out. Next week, I’ll bring you insights from a CEO dinner cohosted by Chrissy Taylor of Enterprise Mobility in her home in St. Louis. If you’d like to participate in these CEO gatherings, reach out to Sarah Worob at sarah.worob@fortune.com.
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
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Realizing the Value in Smart Manufacturing In an era where increased capacity can set companies apart, smart manufacturing can drive advantage. Deloitte's Smart Manufacturing and Operations study reveals that smart manufacturing investments have led to significant improvements in production output, employee productivity, and unlocked capacity. However, companies must set their sights on the right investment and implementation strategies to create value. Read the insights here. |
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Inflation still top of Powell’s mind. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in a speech yesterday the possibility that “inflation could be more volatile going forward than during the inter-crisis period of the 2010s.” The Fed’s strategy will focus on making sure “long-term inflation expectations” are grounded, Powell said.
Walmart and Amazon both said consumers should expect higher prices ahead because they and their suppliers cannot absorb all the extra costs of President Trump’s tariffs.
Recession keeps failing to show up. Despite the doom-laden predictions of economists and Wall Street analysts, retail sales data and inflation pricing data show the economy to be in decent shape.
Delegates from Russia and Ukraine are engaging in peace talks in Turkey today but neither Putin nor Zelensky are there.
Meta’s fraud problem: “70% of newly active advertisers on the platform are promoting scams, illicit goods or ‘low quality’ products,” according to the WSJ.
Kohl’s board member resigns. Christine Day, a member of Kohl’s board of directors and the former CEO of Lululemon, resigned from the retailer earlier this month because she was “continually disappointed with the level of governance process.” Day’s resignation, revealed in an SEC filing last week, came just days after CEO Ashley Buchanan was fired for making a deal with a supplier he had a personal relationship with.
Coinbase is under investigation by the SEC for allegedly making misleading statements about the number of users it has. CEO Brian Armstrong has previously claimed to have 103 million users but that number may be counting multiple accounts held by the same users.
The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates are working on a deal that could allow the Gulf country to import 500,000 of Nvidia’s H100 chips per year. Some worry that this will allow foreign rivals—such as China—to get their hands on America’s best AI assets.
Dick’s acquires Foot Locker. Dick’s Sporting Goods announced that it is purchasing struggling shoe retailer Foot Locker for $2.4 billion. The purchase will allow Dick’s to increase its market share in international cities, but Wall Street is skeptical that Dick’s can turn Foot Locker around.
Former FBI Director James Comey published a photo on Instagram of an arrangement of shells on a beach that read "8647." The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., responded on X: "Just James Comey casually calling for my dad to be murdered."
Must-read: This WSJ interview with a Newark airport air traffic controller currently on trauma leave is jaw-dropping.
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• The S&P 500 rose 0.41% yesterday. The index is up 0.6% YTD. S&P futures traded up 0.23% this morning, premarket. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.57% in early trading. Japan was flat. China was down 0.5%. Korea was marginally up and India was slightly down. Coinbase fell 7.2% after traders took profits from a 20% runup over the last five days. Bitcoin was sitting above $103K.
From the analysts
• Deutsche Bank on China: “China’s loss in the First Opium War began what China describes as its ‘Century of Humiliation’ in which it faced unequal treaties and foreign intervention from Western powers and later Japan (see Xi Jinping's speech on CCP's 100th anniversary). This memory likely informs China’s approach to external pressure today and its willingness to stand up to economic coercion,” per Mallika Sachdeva.
• EY on consumer sentiment: “As the negative impact from these higher tariffs takes hold, slower income growth coupled with depressed consumer sentiment and lingering policy uncertainty are likely to translate into substantially slower consumption growth. We foresee real consumer spending momentum decelerating from 3.1% y/y in Q1 2025 to 1.1% y/y in Q4 2025,” per Lydia Boussour.
• Convera on the dollar: “The US dollar’s rebound has already lost steam, further hindered by fresh speculation that President Donald Trump favours a weaker buck,” per George Vessey.
• Macquarie on the dollar: “A broader question than whether the USD will weaken further this year is whether we are on a longer-term trajectory of USD weakness, and how long might that might last. An analysis of historical cycles of American primacy and American malaise suggests that (real) USD weakness may last for 5-8 years, if we are indeed at a new turning point,” Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry.
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